A review of mid-year data of violent episodes involving African militant Islamist groups and their evolution over the past decade underscores the growing threat posed by these actors. The threat, however, is characterized by considerable variance in levels and types of violence. Key findings include:
- Militant Islamist group violence continues to be primarily concentrated in five main theaters: Somalia, the western Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, northern Mozambique, and the Sinai Peninsula.
- The projected 5,110 violent events linked to these groups in 2021 (based on mid-year data) represents a 3-percent increase from the record 4,956 violent episodes totaled in 2020. This reflects a dramatic slowing from the 43-percent increase the previous year and the average 20-percent annual increase over the preceding 4 years.
- This relative leveling off in militant Islamist group activity in Africa belies stark differences in trajectories between and within the respective theaters. Nearly all the increases in violent activity are concentrated in two of the five main regions of violent extremist activity in Africa: the Sahel and Somalia. Violent activity in these areas, in turn, is closely tied to the Macina Liberation Front (FLM) in the Sahel and al Shabaab in Somalia.